Statistical analysis and forecast of the dynamics of cotton yield in the Namangan region of the republic of Uzbekistan

Abstract

Observations changing over time, conducted in an ordered sequence, are called a time series. In the article, the statistical regularity of the series of dynamics   is studied - the average cotton yield in the Namangan region of the Republic of Uzbekistan (according to the data provided by the Central Statistical Office of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 1991-2018); the study was conducted using the method of statistical analysis of time series. Point and interval estimates for the average cotton yield were constructed, with a 95% guarantee, explicit trends were identified, and yield in the region was predicted for subsequent years. It was found, using the statistical Durbin-Watson tests, that the average cotton yield in the region has an autocorrelation relationship.